Xaivian Lee is a 6-foot-3 guard for the Princeton Tigers who has been having a terrific sophomore season. Averaging 18 points, 3.6 assists, and five rebounds per game while shooting 37% from three (5.2 3PA/game and 10.7 3PA/100 possessions), 86% from the free throw line (59 attempts), and 63.5% at the rim, Lee has been putting on an offensive clinic so far this season and doesn’t turn 20 until March.

In fact, approximately 64% of all his made field goals this season have been unassisted, and he’s assisting on an estimated 25% of his teammate’s made field goals when on the floor. Additionally, his productivity this season has landed him on the most difficult threshold of my Productive Sophomore Query, in which 71% of sophomores who hit three specific criteria play five or more seasons in the NBA (assuming he records three more dunks by the end of the season, which he’s more than capable of doing).

Let’s dive into how Lee’s game translates to the NBA.

Offense

Offensively, Lee is a skilled passer, playmaker in the pick-and-roll, cutter, and driver. He is also skilled at attacking closeouts, allowing him to create advantages when defenders closeout hard due to his catch-and-shoot ability. Lastly, his quickness can lead to fastbreaks in transition.

Pick-And-Roll

One of Lee’s most efficient areas is as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, where he ranks in the 95th percentile in points per possession (P&R Ball Handler + Passes). The sophomore has a tight handle, downhill speed when attacking the rim, and makes sound reads to the big either rolling, slipping, or popping.

Slashing

Lee has also shown flashes of creating rim pressure by himself, using a quick first step to collapse defenses.

Forced Passes

It should be noted that sometimes Lee can get out of control on drives and force passes, yet still only has an impressively low 9.2 TOV%. Additionally, sometimes Lee will force up a difficult midrange fadeaway attempt. The latter, however, is more expected of someone expanding their shot diet.

Counters & Self-Creation

Perhaps the most intriguing area of Lee’s game are the flashes of self-creation and counters in the paint that he shows. While perfecting counters on drives will provide him other avenues to get a bucket, his self-creation could create valuable advantages and an additional way for him to initiate offense.

Lee has a legitimate craft to his game that’s not common to find, especially for someone with adequate positional size and an underclassman. As mentioned earlier, approximately 64% of all Lee’s made field goals this season have been unassisted.

Other Offensive Areas

Catch-and-Shoot Threes

The 19 year old sophomore is shooting a blistering 47.5% on catch-and-shoot threes this season (40 attempts). While this efficiency is outstanding, his out-in-front release point could be a cause for concern. The increased speed of the game from the Ivy League to the NBA will be significant, as will the speed and quality of closeouts and the ground coverage of defenders. Below is a few examples of contested makes that provides an overall feel for his form.

Shooting Form: Balance & Release Point

Below are examples of plays where his out-in-front release point leads to an easier contest and, therefore, a miss.

Additionally, below are two clips of Lee being off balance in catch-and-shoot situations, also leading to misses. Overall, Lee is a talented shooter and scorer but being aware of unbalance at times could keep his form even more consistent from attempt to attempt.

Attacking Closeouts

Arguably Lee’s strongest skill that pops on tape is his ability to attack closeouts. He consistently creates for others off of attacking closeouts or gets an easy layup himself.

Defense

Likely scouts biggest concern with Lee’s game, there is fair concern regarding Lee’s frame as he’s currently listed at 171 pounds. Statistically, however, Lee is recording a 1.9 steal percentage and 2.6 block percentage, indicating some level of defensive playmaking ability.

On-Ball

On-ball defensively, Lee occasionally gives up driving lanes but has shown solid lateral quickness overall. Sometimes it may appear he’s giving up a driving lane, but it appears to be more of a schematical strategy of forcing baseline and forcing the driver into his rotating teammate from the weakside.

Here’s a few examples of his adequate lateral quickness:

However, as mentioned, the frame can be a concern at times. When faced with stronger drivers, it can be hard for Lee to re-establish position on-ball and also contain driving lanes.

Off-Ball Defense

Off-ball defensively, Lee showed sound off-ball defense. He helped at the nail, stunted drivers at times, rotated to contain drivers, and had a block in transition in the games I watched. There was one missed tag, but overall Lee is neutral off-ball defensively. While he likely won’t be a defensive playmaker in the NBA, he also likely won’t be a liability off-ball either.

Conclusion

Lee projects closest to the archetype of a microwave scorer. He has some fairly legitimate wiggle and self-creation ability that’s unique. He is also a sound playmaker out of the pick-and-roll and off of drives. Additionally, his finishing is notable, as is his ability to get to the rim. Defensively, he’s shown solid lateral quickness but his lean frame could pose trouble on-ball defensively in the NBA.

Possible Low Outcome (and why):

Lee’s self-creation has seen poor competition in the Ivy League, rendering it difficult to translate to NBA competition. His catch-and-shoot apex remains too low to get off against NBA-level closeouts (and speed of the game), making it more difficult for him as a spot up shooter as well. This, combined with NBA offenses targeting him in mismatches due to his lean frame, leads to him not sticking in the NBA (but having an extremely successful career overseas).

High outcome (and why):

Lee comes off the bench as a microwave scorer and primary ball-handler that’s able to get a bucket whenever his team needs. He continues to improve his counters in the paint and becomes very difficult to contain on all three levels, especially out of the pick-and-roll. He holds his own defensively due to sound rotations and adequate lateral quickness, enough so to play meaningful NBA minutes.

Current Draft Grade: Late 2nd Round Pick (Picks 51-60)